spend less, work less

Paul Gilding, former head of Greenpeace International, writes that "the ecological system that supports human society is hitting its limits, groaning under the strain of an economy simply too big for the planet.  The coming years won't be pleasant, as our society and economy hit the wall and then realign around [the fact that] you cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet.  In response to the now inevitable crisis, we will have to adopt  policies like encouraging community, greater equality and a steady-state economy.  Change is going to start coming fast - change that will be challenging, but that will ultimately lead us to a better place."

This is the Reader's Digest version of Paul's essay - for the full-length article, go to his website, or better yet, read his book.  I heard Paul speak at the Illahee Lecture Series in Portland - he is a very powerful speaker, with a more positive outlook about the future than Heinberg or Kunstler.

Curious about peak oil?  Want to know the basics without being bored to tears with graphs and statistics?  Transition Voice offers Peak Oil 101: A Snarky Guide to Peak Oil.

James Howard Kunstler writes in The Long Emergency that the decreasing availability of cheap oil will cause massive disruptions in our economy.  As oil becomes more scarce, its price will continue to increase, causing prices to rise for all of the goods we purchase - food, clothing, appliances, electronics, cars, you name it.  That's because it takes lots of oil to grow, produce and transport everything we consume.  Our daily commuting costs will climb, too.  As the cost of everything increases, we'll buy fewer non-essentials, and businesses will suffer from decreased sales.  To reduce their operating costs, they will outsource and automate wherever they can, and they will lay off employees, further reducing consumer demand.  As oil prices continue to climb, many companies will go out of business, causing more lay-offs.  You get the picture.  I won't try to summarize the evidence behind Kunstler's conclusions - you can read the book if you're interested.  He doesn't offer any solutions, because there aren't any.  Instead, he attempts to describe the disruptions and disorder that will occur as the economy contracts.  He paints a picture of a less globalized, more locally-based economy, where people consume a lot less, and are more directly engaged in producing what they consume.

It's depressing to read stuff like this, but by becoming informed, you have the opportunity to plan and prepare for the changes ahead.  For myself, I'm trying to build up my savings, so I can weather financial hardships.  I'm also trying to reduce my dependence on my car.  That means looking for a job that I can get to by bus or by walking.  This spring, I'll increase the size of my vegie garden to eat healthier and reduce my food bills.  Those are all things I want to do anyway - reading Kunstler keeps me motivated and focused.

Richard Heinberg was here in Portland last week, speaking about the current economic crisis and why endless growth is not sustainable.  Heinberg's point is that our economy has been based on debt-driven growth, with Americans buying things we don't need and can't afford.  While we've been going deeper and deeper into debt, our incomes have stagnated or decreased.  Americans are being laid off because of mechanization and because of jobs being shifted overseas, where labor is cheaper.  With millions unemployed, there is downward pressure on wages, as people compete against each other for jobs.  So, as more Americans become unemployed or employed at lower wages, we are less able to engage in excess consumption, which results in reduced sales of consumer goods, more lay-offs and more economic contraction.  At the same time, the era of cheap fossil fuels is coming to an end, driving up prices of everything that requires energy to make or transport, which is basically everything.

Most economists and almost all politicians talk about getting the economy back on track, back to the way it was before the bubble burst.  But, clearly, that's not going to happen.  We need to figure out how to create a new economy, that is not based on endless growth, debt and cheap oil.  I'll discuss these topics further in future posts.  In the meantime, here's a video of Heinberg from earlier this year, explaining why things can't go back to the way they were...

By the way, I haven't read Heinberg's new book yet, but I plan to...

Here's a short animated video from the Post Carbon Institute, explaining how our economy became so dependent upon cheap fossil fuels, and why that era is coming to an end...

Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that has enabled our comfortable lifestyle for decades.  Almost every aspect of our lives is dependent upon cheap oil.  If you're skeptical, think about how you get to work, how you power your home, how your food is grown, how your clothes are made and where the products you buy come from.

The term "peak oil" refers to the end of cheap oil, as we deplete the high-quality, easily-extracted reserves.  The remaining oil will be farther away, in smaller reserves and of lower quality, according to the Post Carbon Institute.  This means that it will be more difficult and more expensive to extract, refine and transport the oil.  Many scientists and researchers believe we have already reached the peak of oil production, and are heading into decline.

What does this mean for our way of life?  The End of Suburbia is an excellent (and entertaining) documentary that provides some insight:

There is a sequel called Escape from Suburbia, which shows how some folks are adjusting their lives and preparing for the inevitable changes.  I'll provide more info about the positive changes people are making in a separate post.